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<title>We created a tool to help predict COVID-19 increases in African countries</title>
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<p dir="LTR"><span lang="en-us"><b><font color="#383838" size="5" face="Georgia">How the model is built</font></b></span></p>
<p dir="LTR"><span lang="en-us"><font color="#383838" size="4" face="Georgia">We used a relatively simple model, by mathematical standards, to base the computer codes. We incorporated the daily case reports from each country, as well as the characterisation of the Human Development Index for each country, population, the stringency of social measures to control the infection, and meteorological data. We took into account the cases in neighbouring countries, as well as whether the country is landlocked.</font></span></p>
<p dir="LTR"><span lang="en-us"><font color="#383838" size="4" face="Georgia">Our model used the case numbers reported up to and including the previous week, to predict the case numbers in the week ahead.</font></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span></p>
<p dir="LTR"><span lang="en-us"><b><font color="#383838" size="4" face="Georgia">Read here:</font></b></span><span lang="en-us"> </span><a href="https://theconversation.com/we-created-a-tool-to-help-predict-covid-19-increases-in-african-countries-164425?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20Weekend%20Conversation%20-%202011519760&utm_content=The%20Weekend%20Conversation%20-%202011519760+CID_954ba1abfd048963e9fc4e5cd026afbe&utm_source=campaign_monitor_africa&utm_term=We%20created%20a%20tool%20to%20help%20predict%20COVID-19%20increases%20in%20African%20countries"><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"><u><font color="#0563C1" size="4" face="Georgia">https://theconversation.com/we-created-a-tool-to-help-predict-covid-19-increases-in-african-countries-164425?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20Weekend%20Conversation%20-%202011519760&utm_content=The%20Weekend%20Conversation%20-%202011519760+CID_954ba1abfd048963e9fc4e5cd026afbe&utm_source=campaign_monitor_africa&utm_term=We%20created%20a%20tool%20to%20help%20predict%20COVID-19%20increases%20in%20African%20countries</font></u></span><span lang="en-us"></span></a><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"><b></b></span><span lang="en-us"><b></b></span><span lang="en-us"><b><font size="4" face="Georgia"></font></b></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"><b></b></span><span lang="en-us"><b></b></span><span lang="en-us"><b> </b></span></p>
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<p dir="LTR"><span lang="en-us"> </span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"><b></b></span><span lang="en-us"><b></b></span><span lang="en-us"><b></b></span><b><span lang="en-us"> <font color="#1F4E79" face="Arial">Dr Leti Kleyn<br>
</font></span></b><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"><font color="#1F4E79" size="2" face="Arial">PhD (UP), MPhil (UP), MA (UNISA)</font></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"><b></b></span><span lang="en-us"><b></b></span><span lang="en-us"><b></b></span><b><span lang="en-us"><font color="#1F4E79" size="2" face="Arial"> </font></span></b></p>
<p dir="LTR"><b><span lang="en-us"><font color="#1F4E79" face="Arial">Senior Information Specialist | </font></span></b></p>
<p dir="LTR"><b><span lang="en-us"><font color="#808080" face="Arial">Information Hub</font></span></b><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"><b></b></span><span lang="en-us"><b></b></span><b><span lang="en-us"></span></b></p>
<p dir="LTR"><b><span lang="en-us"><font color="#808080" size="2" face="Arial">Research assistant | Future Africa Institute</font></span></b></p>
<p dir="LTR"><b><span lang="en-us"><font color="#808080" size="2" face="Arial">Research Fellow | Faculty of Humanities</font></span></b></p>
<p dir="LTR"><span lang="en-us"></span><a name=""><span lang="en-us"></span></a><span lang="en-us"></span><a name=""><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span></a><span lang="en-us"></span><a name=""><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span></a><span lang="en-us"></span><a name=""><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span></a><span lang="en-us"></span><a name=""><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"></span></a><span lang="en-us"></span><a name=""><span lang="en-us"></span><span lang="en-us"><font color="#005BAA" size="2" face="Arial">Cell +27 (0)82 347 9982<br>
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