[Irtalk] Fwd: [GOAL] Reed Elsevier: Goodbye to Berlin - The Fading Threat of Open Access (Upgrade to Market-Perform)

[Hilton Gibson]

FYI.

*Hilton Gibson*
Ubuntu Linux Systems Administrator
JS Gericke Library
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Tel: +27 21 808 4100 | Cell: +27 84 646 4758

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Richard Poynder <ricky at richardpoynder.co.uk>
Date: 24 September 2014 10:20
Subject: [GOAL] Reed Elsevier: Goodbye to Berlin - The Fading Threat of
Open Access (Upgrade to Market-Perform)
To: "Global Open Access List (Successor of AmSci)" <goal at eprints.org>


A new investment report on Elsevier has been published by BernsteinResearch
analyst Claudio Aspesi.



Extract:





When we downgraded Reed Elsevier to Underperform in 2011, we thought that
budget constraints would slow the growth of Elsevier's journal business
below consensus. At the time, the outlook for the years to come was for
continued cuts in academic library budgets, and we thought unavoidable that
libraries would respond by progressively abandoning "Big Deal" contracts in
order to achieve substantial savings, facilitated by the limited number of
journals which really matter to readers.

In addition, in 2012 we also thought that political intervention both in
Europe and in the UK would force a shift to full Open Access (OA) journals,
with negative consequences on the economics of Elsevier. Years of lobbying
by various constituencies brought the UK first, then the European Union,
and finally the Obama administration to adopt policies and, in the case of
the UK and the EU, funding to support a transition to OA. By our estimates
at the time, a full transition to Gold OA could lower Reed Elsevier's
overall operating profit by an estimated 6 to 22%.

11 years after the Berlin Declaration on Open Access, however, the rise of
Open Access appears to inflict little or no damage on the leading
subscription publishers.



The report is available here: goo.gl/WbSfF4





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